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COVID-19: Reasons for Optimism

By Mary O’Brien, M.D.

Are you demoralized by “spikes” and “surges” in COVID-19 “cases”?  Are you afraid to go to the grocery store without a gallon of hand sanitizer and a hazmat suit?  That’s how you’re supposed to feel.  Don’t fall for it.  There are reasons to be encouraged, and they won’t be reported by most people in the media.

Consider the following:

  • Mortality rates continue to fall across the country. The highest number of deaths or maximum mortality in the U.S. occurred on April 10th, 2020.
  • Clinical experience with COVID-19 in hospital and ICU settings over the past five months has improved diagnosis, care, and outcomes dramatically.
  • Hospital length of stay (LOS) for COVID-19 patients is half of what it was in March and April of 2020.
  • Media reports of ICUs being near capacity are misleading. For example, in Texas, on July 6th, COVID-19 patients filled 15% of ICU beds; 85% of ICU beds were filled by non-COVID patients.  Remember, for months, many people who should have been hospitalized with other conditions simply stayed home. Furthermore, most clinicians with significant experience have seen multiple episodes of packed ERs and ICUs at nearly any time of year.  It happens.
  • Protocols using Remdesivir, Dexamethasone, convalescent plasma, and other therapies are improving survival here and in other countries.
  • The current mortality rate for people under the age of 50 is 0.05% or half that of the flu. The mortality rate for people in their 20s is 0.007%.  So far, despite initial concerns, there are no well-documented cases of children transmitting COVID-19 to adults.  Schools in Germany, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Australia have opened without problems.  The schools in the U.S. can reopen without panic and paranoia.  There is a sensible way to do this.
  • Confirmed cases of COVID-19 are substantially lower than reported cases. An actual case of COVID-19 must be confirmed with additional testing.  False positives seem to outnumber false negatives at present.  A positive “case” or test result does not automatically translate into a sick patient.
  • There is a difference between dying with COVID-19 and dying from COVID-19. Heart disease, COPD, bacterial pneumonias, diabetes, renal failure, strokes, dementia, and cancer have not disappeared.
  • Rapid progress is being made by numerous companies working on vaccines and therapeutics. This would not have been possible without unprecedented public-private partnerships and the easing of burdensome red tape.

It’s easier to scare people than it is to “un-scare” them.  The simplest way to control people is to silence independent thinkers and keep everyone else afraid and uncertain.  Uncertainty promotes fear, and fear is contagious.

The vast majority of people in the med0ia and far too many “officials” and politicians are trying to make this situation sound as bad as possible for as long as possible.  They are teaching people to be afraid of everything including one another.  This is insane.  It borders on sinister.

We are making for more progress than most people realize.  Fear not.  There are plenty of reasons for optimism.